Traditional use of the maximal likelihood approach for substantiation of scenarios' weights in stochastic two-stage decision making LP models is proven to be incorrect under a lack of observations (that usually happens in case of the agricultural production). Alternative approach is suggested
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian). UDK 631.115:512.711.3.

The possibility to apply dynamic programming to the general crop rotation optimisation problem is proven. The mathematical model is described. The PROLOG program is presented that implements the model. The methodological issues of practical application are discussed.
There is a fault in the paper (detected in the author in October 22, 1999): under the presense of technological and (or) agronomical constraints the suggested model may not find an optimum (however, in most cases the solution that is found is usually better than the one suggested by experts). The error does not affect other problem statements discussed in the paper.
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Now I realise that the methodology that is suggested in the paper is completely wrong, so I present this paper here just to let people, who probably used this paper in the past, know about the error. The paper is a result of expanding the incorrect idea of the previous paper (20). The constraint on the variance of economic effect was incorrectly introduced in the general model. The suggested approach is practically acceptable but does not result in the optimal solution for sure.
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian). UDK 631.15:631.152.

An abstract about the approach that is fully described in (20). Sorry, the error that appeared in (20) is also present here :-(
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An abstract of another presentation based on (20). In addition to an useful content, the faulty claim mentioned before is still present :-(
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It is suggested to consider the diminution of cash assets value caused by inflation when developing short-term planning LP models. The appropriate methodology is developed. The author expresses gratitude to Irina V. Bezlepkina, who was a student that time, for her valuable contribution to a practical approval of the methodology.
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian). UDK 336.748:63.001.573.

The paper stresses at the programming techniques applied to crop rotation models. A newer revision of the Prolog program is presented that implements the model developed in (20). The program is correct but there is an faulty claim about the possibility to expand the programme so that it could consider technological and (or) agronomical constraints.
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian). UDK 63.001.573:519.8:631.582.

An abstract of a presentation based on (34) that remains being wrong :-(. The presented algorithm, though practically acceptable, may not find an optimum despite the opposite is claimed.
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A brief description of the methodology presented in (76). The paper concentrates on the application of this methodology while choosing the method of recovering ability to pay or of reforming insolvent farms.
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian). UDK 631.16:658.153.012.7:63.001.573.

The approach is suggested that ensures the optimal plan to be well balanced within the whole range of variation of stochastic variables, while classical stochastic two-stage decision making LP models do not allow that.
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian). UDK 63.001.573.
June 10, 2007 several errors were fixed in this article. The old version that corresponds to the publication is saved here.

There is a detailed description of the methodology aimed at ranking farms on their solvency. The methodology is based on the simulation of a particular scenario of a debt service process. Compared to the traditional approaches, which are based on the analysis of a lot of financial ratios that describe a farm mostly from the point of view of a creditor, the suggested methodology benefits in following aspects: a simple and precise meaning of the calculated rating, an ability to modify the scenario in order to meet a particular research task, an ability to relax a human expert conjoining the meaning of numerous ratios. The approach is developed specially for the agricultural firms but can be modified so to be used in the framework of any business.
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian). UDK 631.16:658.153.012.7:63.001.573.

The paper demonstrates the opportunity of quick and dirty estimation of the losses caused by financial imperfections given very limited data. To simulate the "perfect" financing the MP model is applied whose objective function value is calculated by means of the modified version of Bayesian inference.
Note that there is a misprint in a formula that is used to calculate probabilities of objective value's belonging to a given quanitle. The multipliers (z-k) and (1-z+k) should be exchanged. Apologies for the inconvenience.
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An abstract of the presentation about empirical testing of the methodology described in (77). The data of a subset of firm farms in the Moscow Region was used.
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The outcome of the empirical testing of the approach described in (77). The data of a subset of firm farms in the Moscow Region was used. The data preparation process is described in details. It is shown that the losses caused by ill-timed financing at the farms in the studied subset can be a significant source of inefficiency.
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The paper based on (83), but in Russian and shorter.
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The system of indicators of losses caused by undue and incomplete financing is suggested. A theoretical mathematical programming model is described aimed at defining these indicators. By means of simplifying this model practically acceptable methods of approaching these losses can be obtained..
Access: on-line, PDF format (in Russian). UDK 631.16:658.155.3.

An optimal implementation programme is developed for a project of reconstruction of greenhouses at "Murmansky" state greenhouse farm. The project aims at introducing a technology of full-year planting by means of artificial lighting and hydroponics. According to the plan, some greenhouses should be destroyed as there is no market for their production. A part of the remaining greenhouses should be reconstructed.
Access: the paper is not accessible on-line. Available at Russian State Library.

An alternate edition of the results presented in (83).
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An abstract of the poster presentation at the 24th International Agrarian Economists Association Conference (Berlin, August 2000). A method of optimisation of project goals is suggested based on integer programming. Being applied at the identification phase of the project cycle, this method increases synergism of investment program components.
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An abstract of the poster presentation at the 24th International Agrarian Economists Association Conference (Berlin, August 2000). The content is similar to that of (79).
Access: the paper is not accessible on-line. Use (79) instead.

The paper aimed at estimating a local (in the vicinity of actual state) linear approximation of the Moscow Region case farm utility functions. There are two novelties: an empirical model is a linear programme based on Leontieff technologies whose parameters are estimated by means of linear regression; to estimate the utility functions the vector programming theoretical model is applied that is transferred into the linear programme by the instrumentality of general reciprocity theorem.
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Briefly presented results of (101).
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Briefly presented results of (101).
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By means of DEA-model it is shown that there are opportunities of wages growth in the most efficient corporate farms of Moscow region.
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An experience of DEA application for the purpose of monitoring efficiency growth opportunities on corporate farms (the case of Moscow region) is presented. The outcome is that the shortage of short-term financing in 2002 had less importance than in 1999 replaced with shortage of machinery, land and labour. Attention is drawn to scarce reasoning in favour of managerial and political sources of inefficiency in many other DEA studies of the same objects.
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The paper presents the same findings as (137), but in Russian and in a shorter form.
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The paper presents the same findings as (137), but in Russian and in a shorter form.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian). UDK 631.15.001.57:65.011.

A mathematical LP model is suggested that allows approaching land rent. It is grounded that in this model the shadow price of the worst land with respect to fertility and location reflects absolute land rent. Model applications made so far give a reason for the conclusion about non-zero absolute rent in Moscow region .
Access: on-line, PDF document (in Russian). UDK 332.6.

A theoretical framework of revealing farms' preferences is tried based on data envelopment model. The hypothesis about short-term profit maximizing behaviour of Moscow region corporate farms is rejected in favour of Baumol's oligopolistic (revenue-maximising) behaviour. Non-monetary utility components do not pertain to the revealed corporate farms preferences. With respect to the revealed preferences, the scarcest resources in 2002 and 2003 are machinery (56.3 and 50.6% of farms, correspondingly), cows (47.7 and 37.6%), haylands and pastures (39.2 and 50.6%). The political implication of this study is a need for institutional improvements aimed at lowering transaction costs, improving access to market information and competitiveness of market environment.
Access: on-line, PDF document (supposingly in English). The complete text of the proceedings of IAMO-Forum 2005 can be found here (also in  PDF).

Data envelopment analysis of a set of meat-processing farms in European part of Russia shows that investment activities source a large part of inefficiency because of presence of incompleted projects. In average, the larger the enterprise the higher its technical efficiency. No evidence is found of lacks of either fixed or turnover assets that result in declining technical efficiency. Some weak signs of possible dependency of the technical efficiency on property types need a more detailed study.
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Yet another DEA application. It is shown that allocative inefficiency causes 65-100% (depending on the group) of total inefficiency in 2002 and 60-96% in 1999, as a result of unstable market environment. As for technical inefficiency, in 1999 its major source was the lack of liquidity (30-48%) and other resources; in 2002 it was the lack of fodder (up to 37%), liquidity (up to 31%) and sown area (48% in one of the groups). The role of insufficient management in regional farming inefficiency is evaluated as being much lower than many earlier DEA studies suggest.
Access: on-line, PDF document (in English). Alternative access: PDF on IAMO site.

DEA analysis is applied to a sample of meat-processing plants in European Russia. About 20% of technical inefficiency is found to be due to the revealed preferences. The nature of the preferences is uncertain because of high variation and kurtosis of utility function tangent slopes, yet the most significant estimates look like it should be in case of profit maximisation.
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Linear programming model is described simulating co-operation in a branch of a food production chain. The model allows for allocation of primary production, transportation, short-term credits for agricultural corporate farms against the collateral of food processing business etc. Agricultural technologies are represented by means of data envelopment. The aim of the model is to identify the short-term outlook of development of food processing plants and their resource base. For the moment, the form of credit support of agricultural producers that is provided by the model is hardly efficient. The model can be used as a basic tool for testing other forms of co-operation of agricultural and food-processing enterprises.
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On the base of year 2001 input-output table of Russia the branches of national economy are identified that can significantly influence the food industry in case of varying their outputs or prices. The supervising institutes of the food industry are recommended to monitor economic processes in these branches. The set of branches that are chosen for the monitoring should be periodically reviewed considering changes in the priorities of national economic policy by the instrumentality of the methodology developed in this paper. It is shown that smoothing distortions in tax pressure would result in higher performance of relations between food industry and its partner branches due to raised assets value of the latter and, consequently, to their easier access to credit resources.
Access: on-line, PDF document (full manuscript in Russian). The version that is published in the journal is significantly shortened.

A more detailed presentation of the model presented in (147) and of methodology of its application in managing development of the resource base of food processing industry.
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© N. Svetlov, 2000-2009.
November 1, 2009.